Projections of air pollutant emissions and its impacts on regional air quality in China in 2020

摘要: Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants in China influence not only local and regional environments but also the global atmospheric environment; therefore, it is important to understand how China's pollutant will change they affect quality future. Emission scenarios 2020 were projected using forecasts energy consumption emission control strategies based on 2005, recent development plans for key industries China. We developed four scenarios: REF[0] (current legislations implementation status), PC[0] (improvement efficiencies current environmental legislation), PC[1] better PC[2] strict legislation). Under scenario, SO 2 , NO x VOC NH 3 increase by 17%, 50%, 49% 18% 2020, while PM 10 be reduced 10% over East China, compared that 2005. In PC[2], sustainable polices reduce 4.1 Tg, 2.6 Tg 1.8 respectively; policies 2.9 1.4 standards 3.2 3.9 1.7 respectively. decrease 38%, 3% 8%, Future was simulated Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). emissions, surface concentrations hourly maximum ozone summer, 2.5 total sulfur nitrogen depositions 28%, 41%, 19% 25%, respectively, east 18%, 16% 15%, nitrate, kept as 2005 level, The individual impacts NMVOC primary changes have been analyzed sensitivity analysis. results suggest need enhanced during summertime obtain both reduction benefits. controls should considered order nitrate concentration deposition