The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time‐scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

摘要: Extreme variability of the winter- and spring-time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing forecast error may be one way improve skill weather forecasts. In this review, basis for idea is examined. A range studies different extreme events shows that they can skilfully forecasted beyond 5 days into sub-seasonal (0 – 30 days) in some cases. Separate show typical errors forecasting a event alter by 7% extratropics on time-scales. Thus understanding what limits predictability significant interest operational centres. Both limitations planetary waves model biases have important context.