Boom means bust: interactions between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), rainfall and the processes threatening mammal species in arid Australia

摘要: We collated an environmental history for a 8580 km2 study area in the Simpson Desert, Australia. Quantitative and qualitative data on climate, land-use, fire ecosystem dynamics were used to construct chronology of processes threatening terrestrial mammal species. Over last 150 years there has been transition land tenure from hunter–gatherer economy pastoralism, loss 11 species, cessation small scale burning by Aboriginal people introduction fox cat. Annual rainfall was highly variable influenced phase El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Irruptions rodents, marked increases populations native introduced predators extensive wildfires associated with La Nina ENSO occurred when rain-year (July–June) approached or exceeded 90th percentile historical distribution. Large events arid Australia have viewed traditionally as ‘boom’ times that benefit wildlife pastoral production. However, because hyper-predation risk wildfire, we show years including immediately following flooding rains should be identified critical, ‘bust’ periods conservation management. related climatic forecasts appear useful cues which can incorporated into predator management strategies Studies such this, utilise broad range types across areas, identify timing potential process not possible using contemporary studies alone.