Within-season yield prediction with different nitrogen inputs under rain-fed condition using CERES-Wheat model in the northwest of China.

摘要: BACKGROUND Yield prediction within season is of great use to improve agricultural risk management and decision making. The objectives this study were access the yield forecast performance with increasing nitrogen inputs determine when acceptable predicted can be achieved using CERES-Wheat model. RESULTS the calibrated model simulated wheat very well under various water conditions. Long-term simulation demonstrated that input enlarged annual variability generally. Within-season showed that, regardless inputs, forecasts in later growing improved accuracy reduced uncertainty prediction. In a low-yielding year (2011–2012) high-yielding (1991–1992), date was 62 65 days prior maturity, respectively. normal-yielding (1983–1984), inadequate precipitation after jointing stage most historical years led underestimation accurate delayed 235–250 (7–22 maturity) for different N inputs. CONCLUSION Yield highly influenced by distribution meteorological elements during may show improvement if future weather reliably early. © 2015 Society Chemical Industry