A white paper on global wheat health based on scenario development and analysis

摘要: Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, framework for scenario is designed then, applied global wheat health within timeframe from today 2050. entails choice settings, definition scenarios change, outcomes these chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing large fraction diversity wheat-based considered, which represent settings analysis. Several components changes considered their consequences on health: climate change variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide deployment host plant resistances. Each agrosystem associated considers first, production situation its dynamics, second, impacts evolving evolution health. Crop represented by six functional groups pathogens: pathogens Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like necrotrophic soilborne pathogens, insect-transmitted viruses. The conducted along risk-analytical pattern, involves risk probabilities categorized probability levels disease epidemics, magnitudes losses resulting epidemics each situation. results suggest an overall increase three agrosystems. Changes magnitude however vary pathogens. We discuss effects groups, terms epidemiology they cause. enables systems, such as pathosystems response changes, including technology shifts. It also provides quantitative simulation modeling epidemiology.