‘Plausible’ energy scenarios?! How users of scenarios assess uncertain futures

摘要: Abstract Explorative energy scenarios do not present the most probable developments but provide a set of plausible pathways in order to highlight uncertainty and complexity decision-making contexts. Although plausibility is widely assumed as effectiveness criterion for scenario work, little known about how perceived by users. This paper discusses conceptions from philosophy sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory linguistics identify key factors affecting scenarios. A conceptual model proposed that links users' perceptions storytelling internal structure scenario, credibility sources methods users’ worldviews styles. The outlines why are discarded or seriously considered wider audience was involved construction process. explains constitutes necessary sufficient condition usage provides practical implications producers.