A hybrid and integrated approach to evaluate and prevent disasters

摘要: Disasters are, by their nature, very complex phenomena. Their modelling using a systematic and logical methodology can help us identify root causes may facilitate in allocating appropriate resources to prevent such situations. Although techniques exist model phenomena, single off-the-shelf is insufficient provide an effective realistic analysis disasters due its inherent assumptions. In order overcome these limitations of methods, this article proposes hybrid four methods optimise safety investment. First, hierarchy constructed with problem structuring approach. Second, new graphical representation, the Crisis Tree Analysis, introduced visualise how combination basic events lead disaster. Third, criticality each event assessed Analytic Hierarchy Process. Finally, mathematical programming proposed calculate optimal allocation available funds avoid A case study Bhopal disaster used illustrate four-step method.