A Predictive, Two-Parameter Model for the Movement of Reservoir Landslides

摘要: Monitoring data show that many landslides in the Three Gorges region, China, undergo step-like displacements response to managed, quasi-sinusoidal annual variations reservoir level. This behavior is consistent with motion initiating when water level falls below a critical intrinsic each landslide, subsequent displacement rate of landslide being proportional depth Most terminates rises back above level, so step size time integral instantaneous rate. These responses are incorporated into differential equation easily calibrated monitoring data, allowing prediction movement from actual or anticipated changes. Model successes include (1) initiation and termination sliding steps at producing series steps; (2) variable size, year year; (3) approximate shape step. Annual rainfall correlates poorly probably because its effect on groundwater levels dwarfed by 30 m Reservoir. Viscous suggested.