Modelling the progress of light leaf spot (Pyrenopeziza brassicae) on winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus) in relation to leaf wetness and temperature

摘要: A compartmental model was developed to describe the progress with time of light leaf spot (Pyrenopeziza brassicae) on leaves winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus) during autumn in UK. Differential equations described transition between four compartments: healthy susceptible leaves, infected symptomless sporulating and necrotic lesions, respectively. The fitted data at a single site 1990–1991 season. Model parameters were used rates appearance, death, infection by airborne ascospores (primary inoculum) splash-dispersed conidiospores (secondary inoculum). Infection dependent sufficient wetness duration. also included delay terms for latent period sporulation incubation appearance lesions. This modified SEIR formulation gave reasonable fit experimental data. Sensitivity analysis showed that varying parameter accounting rate affected magnitude curves after start epidemic, whilst including conidiospore improved Use ascospore counts from different sites years variation spore release patterns affect predictions.