The Enigma of Oil and Gas Field Growth

摘要: Growth in estimates of recovery discovered fields is an important source annual additions to United States proved reserves. This paper examines historical field growth and presents future reserves from before 1992. Field-level data permitted the sample be partitioned on basis recent patterns into outlier common sets, analyzed separately. The set accounted for less than 15% resources, yet grew proportionately six times as much fields. Because contained large old heavy-oil low-permeability gas fields, its expected particularly sensitive prices. A lower bound a range futu e was calculated by applying monotone functions computed all Higher were obtained extrapolating assuming would maintain same share total that occurred 1978 through 1991. By 2020, two pre-1992 are 23 32 billion bbl oil 142 195 tcf