Trend Analysis and Forecasting of COVID-19 outbreak in India

摘要: COVID-19 is spreading really fast around the world. The current study describes situation of outbreak this disease in India and predicts number cases expected to rise India. also discusses regional analysis Indian states presents preparedness level combating outbreak. uses exploratory data report time-series forecasting methods predict future trends. has been considered from repository John Hopkins University covers up time period 30th January 2020 when first case occurred till end 24th March Prime Minister declared a complete lockdown country for 21 days starting 25th 2020. major findings show that infected rising quickly with average per day 10 73 300th case. mortality rate stands 1.9. Kerala Maharashtra are top two more than 100 reported each state, respectively. A total 25 have at least one case, however only 8 them deaths due COVID-19. ARIMA model prediction shows may reach 700 thousands next 30 worst scenario while most optimistic restrict numbers 1000-1200. Also, forecast by 7000 patients 536. Based on Holts linear trends, an 3 million people get if control measures not taken near future. This will be useful key stakeholders like Government Officials Medical Practitioners assessing trends preparing combat plan stringent measures. helpful scientists, statisticians, mathematicians analytics professionals predicting better accuracy.