DID THE NEW ECONOMY VANQUISH THE REGIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE

摘要: Dan S. Rickman * I. INTRODUCTION In March 2001, the longest economic expansion on record drew to a close. The recent was remarkable not just for its length but also because in atypical fashion, productivity accelerated latter part of expansion, whereas inflation remained constrained (Zarnowitz, 1999). This led many speculate that economy had undergone transformation into so-called New Economy (McTeer, regional dimension appeared have shifted 1990s. Growth across states and regions became remarkably similar (Murphy, Autor (2001) contends new information technologies, including Internet, allow firms more easily outsource their needs workers conduct broader job searches, both which arbitrage labor market differentials. An restructuring occurred as traditional "old" industries waned, blossomed. These developments claims heterogeneity business cycles no longer existed (Whalen, 2000). addition, historically low unemployment rates near end sparked wave studies regarding underlying causes (e.g., Gordon, 1998; Katz Krueger, Regional synchronization is possible explanation has received little attention 1999; Autor, 2001). Archibald (1969) pointed out large variance could increase aggregate rate unemployed cannot costlessly migrate from high-unemployment those with unemployment. lack dispersion performance may contributed lower U.S. rate. Alternatively, "labor shortages" during this period only temporarily reduced national Because pecuniary nonpecuniary costs relocation, be less inclined prosperous if they are already employed. If growth once again s ynchronous, would increase. Therefore, study examines patterns state markets assess extent converged. what follows, after establishing cross-state variation employment greatly declined since 1993, it shown specialization tradable goods converged, one convergence. Whether convergence reflects fundamental shift long-term dynamics then investigated. conclusion despite superficial appearance persist, suggesting disparities will likely reemerge next or idiosyncratic shocks, such dramatic energy price shocks. II. STATE LABOR MARKET TRENDS IN THE 1990s: CASE FOR CONVERGENCE assessment entails an examination several measures contiguous 48 states. Such include population growth, rates, output income-based measures. Due timeliness release accuracy, most commonly used indicator performance. focus local development efforts usually creation (Bartik, 1991). Blanchard (1992) (B&K) note closely associated through influence jobs net migration. Employment two different sources used. first Bureau Economic Analysis (BEA) series total began 1969 (U. …