Modelling bounce-back in water consumption post-drought

摘要: Focussed on a case study of Geelong, Victoria, this paper presents the results unique comparison (i) custom-built regression model for forecasting total customer water demand and (ii) end-use based projections using integrated Supply Demand Planning (iSDP) model. The used historical data calibration level restrictions, evapotranspiration, temperature, rainfall. By selecting future climate scenario (and any anticipated restriction periods) next 10 year period, can be projected by contrast, end use was calibrated to consumption during drought (rather than long term averages) determine extent which suppressed how much each may expected rebound under range scenarios. Results from both approaches are contrasted reflections relative strengths approach discussed.