Risk of multiple sclerosis following clinically isolated syndrome: a 4-year prospective study

摘要: The aim of the study was to estimate rate conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) multiple sclerosis (MS) and investigate variables predicting in a cohort patients presenting with symptoms suggestive MS. Patients first symptom MS preceding 6 months exclusion other diseases were enrolled an observational prospective December 2004 through June 2007. Conversion CIS according both McDonald Clinically Defined Multiple Sclerosis (CDMS) criteria prospectively recorded until March 2010. multivariate Cox proportional hazard model used assess best predictive factors Among 168 included analysis, 122 converted whereas 81 CDMS criteria. 2-year probability 57 % for Criteria 36 Variables at enrolment significantly associated age positivity Barkhof criteria, Poser’s age, no disease modifying therapy. In this large recent within range previous studies lower than that reported placebo arm randomized trials. We confirm prognostic value MRI addition experimental data on protective role disease-modifying therapies.