Potential impacts of climate and environmental change on the stored water of Lake Victoria Basin and economic implications

摘要: [1] The changing climatic patterns and increasing human population within the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB), together with overexploitation of water for economic activities call assessment management entire basin. This study focused on analysis a combination available in situ climate data, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations, high resolution Regional simulations during recent decade(s) to assess storage changes LVB that may be linked variability/changes anomalies. We employed trend analysis, principal component (PCA), temporal/spatial correlations explore associations covariability among stored water, rainfall variability, large-scale forcings associated El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Potential impacts climate-induced are also explored. Overall, observed from lake-shore stations showed modest decades. dominant data TRMM satellite estimates suggest spatial temporal distribution precipitation have not changed much period 1998–2012 over basin consistent observations. However, GRACE-derived indicate an average decline 38.2 mm/yr 2003–2006, likely due extension Owen Fall/Nalubale dam, increase 4.5 2007–2013, two massive rainfalls 2006–2007 2010–2011. between ENSO/IOD indices period, based model simulations, significant influence forcing rainfall, thus water. contributions ENSO IOD amplitude TRMM-rainfall changes, 2003–2013, estimated ∼2.5 cm ∼1.5 cm, respectively.