Probability distributions of CO-inducecd global warming as infeffed directly from multimodel ensemble simulations

摘要: Analytical, purely model-based probability distributions are derived for the instantaneous global mean warming resulting from a gradual doubling of CO2 (TCR = transient climate response) and equilibrium caused by (CS sensitivity). For TCR, estimated 5-95% uncertainty range based on results 20 models is 1.0-2.4 °C when assuming normal, 1.1-2.5 lognormal form distribution. The corresponding numbers CS, 15 models, 2.0-5.0 2.1-5.3 °C. limited sample size makes it difficult to estimate reliably. however, distribution fits data better than normal distribution, although this conclusion critically dependent one extreme model. parameters that define location (mean or median) width (standard deviation) underlying also potentially sensitive sampling variability. estimating warming, aspect dominates over differences between distributions. CS generally consistent with estimates other methods, some recent studies have placed upper bound substantially higher found in present analysis.