An Integrated Wind Power Forecasting Methodology: Interval Estimation Of Wind Speed, Operation Probability Of Wind Turbine, And Conditional Expected Wind Power Output Of A Wind Farm
作者： Heping Liu , Jing Shi , Ergin Erdem
DOI: 10.1080/15435075.2011.647170
关键词:
摘要: The article presents a novel quantitative methodology for wind farm management. starts by forecasting the time series mean and volatility of speed. speed its is built on an autoregressive moving average model with generalized conditional heteroscedasticity process, namely ARMA-GARCH model. With prediction volatility, establishes interval estimation which makes more accurate reliable. To facilitate management farm, operation probability (OP) turbine formulated according to Based characteristics power curve turbine, develops expected output equation (CEWPOE). speed, OP CEWPOE thus comprise integrated manag...
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