Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change

摘要: It is estimated that more than a half of the total atmospheric oxygen produced in oceans due to photosynthetic activity phytoplankton. Any significant decrease net production by phytoplankton therefore likely result depletion and global mass mortality animals humans. In its turn, rate known depend on water temperature hence can be affected warming. We address this problem theoretically considering model coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where slowly changes with time account for ocean show that, when rises sufficiently high, regime shift happens: sustainable becomes impossible system's leads fast plankton extinction. also consider scenario when, after certain period increase, set new higher yet apparently safe value, i.e. before disaster happens. case system may exhibit long-term quasi-sustainable still an ecological (oxygen extinctions) but only considerable time. Finally, we discuss early warning signals approaching resulting disaster.