Projected Warming and Occurrence of Meteorological Droughts—Insights from the Coasts of South India

摘要: The latest development in the climate change forecast, using regional climate models, made it possible to provide more detailed information on future changes climatic variables in the face of global warming. PRECIS, UK Met office Hadley Centre’s Regional Climate Model is being used simulating corresponding to the IPCC-SRES A1B emission scenario for period 2040-2070 with reference base line year 1970-2000 coastal region Thiruvallur, South India. The results indicated a significant increase mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature and slight decrease precipitation over study area. outcomes IMD method Percent Deviation analysis show that the Thiruvallur has witnessed moderate mild droughts during 1970 to 2011. Moderate drought years were mainly 1974, 1980, 1982 1999 -35.78%, -30.09%, -30.54%, -27.30% rainfall deviations respectively. SPI-12 also employed analyze occurrence severity events past. The revealed that 1974 SPI value -2.05 was extremely severe record 1970-2011. (-1.7), 1980 (-1.67), (-1.48) severe dry years. Pearson’s correlation proved both outputs have positive correlation (0.05 level) R2 0.992. It necessary develop early warning systems apt preparedness strategies cope this natural hazard.