A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

摘要: Abstract We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) Lower Missouri River as an example. The incorporates three levels variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about value itself) applied at iteration level, temporal caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) time-step implicit individual differences between individuals) within level. found that dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, fecundity-at-length. inclusion (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, both generally decreased influence parameters on growth rate. partitioning into components had strong importance parameters, uncertainty predictions, quasiextinction risk (i.e., size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show appropriately applying in PVA is important when evaluating relative reinforce need better more precise estimates crucial life-history sturgeon.