Biomedical Research and Changing Concepts of Disease and Aging: Implications for Long-Term Health Forecasts for Elderly Populations

摘要: In prior chapters, we reviewed models for forecasting the health of U.S. elderly and oldest-old population. Chapter 4 suggest that a major stimulus to development is increased scientific knowledge about human senescence chronic disease. As increases, boundaries disease become less distinct (Mooradian Wong, 1991a,b). Models have evolved from unidimensional, genetically fixed failure process, multidimensional stochastic processes where polygenic determination multiple pathologies losses function interact with environment (Finch, 1991; Manton, Stallard, et al., 1992). Forecasting must keep pace with, anticipate future direction of, this evolution—with complication that, even using data sets, will be only partially observed. This chapter reviews illustrates how biomedical research can used construct models, substantive scenarios, forecast effects interventions.