External validation of the KORA S4/F4 prediction models for the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in older adults: the PREVEND study

摘要: Recently, prediction models for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in older adults (aged ≥55 year) were developed the KORA S4/F4 study, Augsburg, Germany. We aimed to externally validate a Dutch population. used data on both (n = 2,050; aged and total non-diabetic population 6,317; 28–75 this validation. assessed performance of base model (model 1: age, sex, BMI, smoking, parental hypertension) two clinical models: 1 plus fasting glucose 2); uric acid 3). For 7-year risk T2DM, we calculated C-statistic, Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) as measures discrimination, calibration reclassification, respectively. After median follow-up 7.7 years, 199 (9.7%) 374 (5.9%) incident cases T2DM ascertained population, In adults, C-statistic was 0.66 1. This improved 3 (C-statistic 0.81) with significant IDI. these respective C-statistics 0.77, 0.85 0.85. All showed poor (P < 0.001). adjustment intercept slope each model, observed good most populations. validated an similar development cohort. However, need be corrected acquire application different setting.