The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

摘要: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's phenomenal international bestseller The Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable shows us how to stop trying predict everything - and take advantage uncertainty. What have invention wheel, Pompeii, Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? can Catherine Great's lovers tell about probability? should you never run for a train or read newspaper? This book is Swans: random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers world disasters. Their impact huge; they're impossible predict; yet after they happen we always try rationalize them. "Taleb bouncy even exhilarating guide...I came relish what he said, develop sneaking affection him as person." (Will Self, Independent on Sunday). "He leaps like some superhero mind." (Boyd Tonkin, Independent). "Funny, quirky thought-provoking...confirms his status guru every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros aspirant despot." (John Cornwell, Sunday Times). "Idiosyncratically brilliant." (Niall Ferguson, Telegraph). "Great fun...brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling. " (Stephen J. Dubner, Co-Author Freakonomics).