Projected Changes in Late-Twenty-First-Century Tropical Cyclone Frequency in 13 Coupled Climate Models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

作者: K. J. Tory , S. S. Chand , J. L. McBride , H. Ye , R. A. Dare

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00010.1

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摘要: AbstractChanges in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency under anthropogenic climate change are examined for 13 global models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), using Okubo–Weiss–Zeta parameter (OWZP) TC-detection method developed by authors earlier papers. The detects large-scale conditions within which TCs form. It was and tuned atmospheric reanalysis data then applied without to ensure model detector independence. Changes TC determined comparing detections CMIP5 historical runs (1970–2000) with high emission scenario (representative concentration pathway 8.5) future (2070–2100). A number project increases higher-latitude cyclones late twenty-first century. Inspection reveals that these high-latitude systems were subtropical origin thus eliminated analysis an objective classification technique. detectio...

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