An Assessment of Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh: The Experience of the 1998 Flood

摘要: Floods are among the most costly natural disasters interms of human sufferings and economic losses inBangladesh. Approximately 20% countryexperiences normal annual flooding while all thehistorical catastrophic floods inundated more thanfifty percent country's total area. The recentflood in 1998 has been found to be severe thanall previous floods. During season of1998, Flood Forecasting Warning Center (FFWC)of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)prepared daily flood bulletin incorporatedinformation about rainfall, rise/fall riverwater, forecasting for 24 48 hr inadvance warning messages (if any). FFWCattempted provide adequate services localand national level decision-making process. Theforecasting procedure adapted by FFWC was based onhydrological information, forecaster's experience, andmodel simulation. This paper primarily examines therole activities FFWC, especially floodforecasting warning. Identification causesand consequences is other pertinentarea discussion paper. Findings this research revealed that of1998 caused heavy downpour upstream thatwas drained out through major rivers Three rivers' peak synchronizedand characterized it as prolonged inthe history Bangladesh. It also that,despite various limitations, forecasts ofthe were reasonably meet nationaldemand during crises 1998.