An Ecosim Model for Exploring Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem Management Options: Implications of Including Multistanza Life-History Models for Policy Predictions

摘要: An Ecopath-Ecosim ecosystem model under development for coastal areas of the Gulf Mexico simulates responses 63 biomass pools to changes in fisheries and primary productivity. Ten key species are represented by detailed, multistanza population-dynamics models (31 pools) that attempt account explicitly possible recruitment rates due by-catch trophic interactions. Over a 1950-2004 historical reference period, shows good simulated agreement with time-series patterns estimated from stock assessment relative abundance index data many species, particular it offers an explanation apparent nonstationarity natural mortality menhaden (declining M over time). It makes one highly counterintuitive policy prediction about impacts management efforts aimed at reducing shrimp trawl fishery, namely reduction may cause negative on productivity several valued [menhaden, Brevoortia patronus Goode, 1878; red drum, Sciaenops ocellatus (Linnaeus, 1766); snapper, Lutjanus campechanus (Poey, 1860)] allowing recovery some benthic predators such as catfishes [Arius felis 1766), Bagre marinus (Mitchill, 1815)] have been reduced trawling but also potentially important juveniles species. Recognition this implication would impossible without explicit, representation juvenile life histories interactions, because predicted predation regimes represent only very small overall fluxes.