Citizen scientists reveal nationwide trends and drivers in the breeding activity of a threatened bird, the malleefowl (Leipoa ocellata)

摘要: Abstract Citizen scientists regularly collect monitoring data for threatened species to improve the spatial and temporal resolution of sampling. Such programs should adopt robust assurance measures statistical approaches reduce observer bias better inform uncertainty estimates while supporting management decisions. In this study, we estimated trends drivers malleefowl (Leipoa ocellata) breeding activity within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework using 1823 site × years nest count collected by volunteers in Australia. Our suggests decreased 4.8% annually South Australia (−0.050; 95%CIs −0.062, −0.037), 2.1% Western (−0.022; 95%CI −0.040, −0.004), was stable Victoria (−0.001; −0.010, 0.009) increased New Wales (0.047; 0.009, 0.086). We found strong evidence positive associations between winter rainfall (0.084; 0.004, 0.165), time since fire (0.288; 0.179, 0.399) an interaction proportion site burnt (0.292; 0.173, 0.410). Malleefowl negatively associated with patch size (−0.255; 95% CI −0.642, 0.020) (−0.191; −0.363, −0.030), suggesting small reserves are important conservation extent frequency be managed cautiously. While our index fox abundance as baiting effort (−0.484; −0.640, −0.317), there little benefiting malleefowl. This study demonstrates how can play vital role understanding population informing at national scale.