Three and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic, and [asymmetric] crash’: East Asia and Latin America compared

摘要: This paper argues that, despite some significant differences, the 1982 debt crisis, 1994 Mexican and 1997 East Asian crisis share common characteristic that ‘over-lending’ ‘over-borrowing’ are basically endogenous market failures of over-liquid under-regulated financial markets — along lines described by Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics, Crashes (although these crashes have tended to be ‘asymmetric’, as largest international lenders emerged relatively intact). The concludes with a discussion Brazil’s increasing vulnerability sudden collapse confidence withdrawal finance, which indicates probability another impending crisis.