Uncertainties in Predicting Debris Flow Hazards Following Wildfire

摘要: Wildfire increases the probability of debris flows posing hazardous conditions where values-at-risk exist downstream burned areas. Conditions and processes leading to postfire usually follow a general sequence defined here as flow hazard cascade: biophysical setting, fire processes, effects, rainfall, flow, values-at-risk. Prediction hazards is problem identifying understanding spatial temporal interactions within this cascade. This chapter summarizes present knowledge involved in cascade identify uncertainties terms gaps, contradictions current process understanding, stochastic system variables, limits data support prediction. Understanding these can improve delineation areas threatened by flows, guide future research, and, when addressed, contribute development comprehensive robust modeling prediction systems that may ultimately reduce threats