Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: model performance and projections

摘要: Seasonal extreme daily precipitation is analyzed in the ensemble of NARCAPP regional climate models. Significant variation these models’ abilities to reproduce observed extremes over contiguous United States found. Model performance metrics are introduced characterize overall biases, seasonality, spatial extent and shape distribution. Comparison models gridded observations that include an elevation correction found be better than without this correction. A complicated model weighting scheme based on simulating cause significant improvements mean skill only if some poorly performing outliers. The effect lateral boundary conditions explored by comparing integrations driven reanalysis those global Projected mid-century future changes seasonal means presented discussions sources uncertainty mechanisms causing presented.