Which Socio-economic Conditions Drive the Selection of Agroforestry at the Forest Frontier?

摘要: Models are essential to assess the socio-economic credentials of new agroforestry systems. In this study, we showcase robust optimisation as a tool evaluate agroforestry’s potential meet farmers’ multiple goals. Our modelling approach has three parts. First, use discrete land-use model two systems (alley cropping and silvopasture) conventional land uses against five objectives, focusing on forest frontier in eastern Panama. Next, couple with optimisation, determine mix (farm portfolio) that minimises trade-offs between objectives. Here consider uncertainty simulate decisions risk-averse farmer. Finally, how type amount included optimal portfolio changes under different environmental, political scenarios, explore conditions may make more attractive for farmers. We identify silvopasture promising meeting goals, especially farms less productive soils. The additional labour demand compared pasture, however, prove an important barrier adoption facing acute shortages. selection responded strongly investment costs timber prices, suggesting cost-sharing arrangements tax incentives could be effective strategies enhance adoption. found alley compatible risk aversion, but system still desirable complement portfolio, farmers who profit-oriented tolerant risk.