Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

摘要: This study explores a situation of staged accession to global climate policy regime from the current regionally fragmented and moderate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which front runner coalition - EU or China embarks immediate ambitious action while rest world makes transition between 2030 2050. We assume that ensuing involves strong mitigation efforts but does not require late joiners compensate for their initially higher emissions. Thus, targets are relaxed, although can achieve significant reductions warming, resulting outcome unlikely be consistent with goal limiting warming 2 degrees. addition reduce pre-2050 excess emissions by 20-30%, increasing likelihood staying below Not accounting potential co-benefits, cost found lower than China. Regions delay face trade-off reduced short term costs transitional requirements due larger carbon lock-ins more rapidly prices during period.