The Impact of Oil Prices on the U.S. Economy

摘要: Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in price oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. methodology from Hamilton (2009), extend dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used analyze historical performance model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. April, 2011, International Monetary Fund changed its 2011 U.S. 3.0% 2.8% largely due persistently high My model suggests that increase 2011Q1 will lead 2% 2011. Furthermore, my predicts a 54% crude prices during second quarter into double dip recession