Atmospheric and Oceanic Contributions to Irreducible Forecast Uncertainty of Arctic Surface Climate

摘要: AbstractUncertainty of Arctic seasonal to interannual predictions arising from model errors and initial state uncertainty has been widely discussed in the literature, whereas irreducible forecast (IFU) chaoticity climate system received less attention. However, IFU provides important insights into mechanisms through which predictability is lost hence can inform prioritization development observations deployment. Here, authors characterize how internal oceanic surface atmospheric heat fluxes contribute sea ice upper-ocean content an Earth by analyzing a set idealized ensemble prediction experiments. It found that flux are often equally for driving unpredictable Arctic-wide changes water temperatures IFU. Atmospheric tends dominate lead times up...