Diagnostic measures for assessing numerical forecasts of African Easterly waves

摘要: The utility of a number diagnostic measures for assessing forecasts the synoptic-scale flow over West Africa and eastern Atlantic is investigated. were carried out using COSMO Model provided by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) three week period in 2004. During this African Easterly Waves (AEWs) observed, which subsequently developed into Hurricanes Danielle, Frances Ivan. A sequence 72 h initialised twice daily from DWD global analysis, analyses 12 boundary conditions. variety diagnostics used to assess including objective jet trough axes Hovmoeller plots. zonal wind was averaged along objectively analysed analyses. This provides robust measure strength that takes account spatial variability location not tied either maximum speed or particular geographic location. Application showed overall well represented. largest errors associated with local variations due misrepresentation forecasts. are give visual indication forecast quality. plots proved useful evolution AEWs, although interpretation difficult when convection model produced small-scale but strong vorticity anomalies. results study will be applied future case studies based on Monsoon: Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) special observing periods.