Contribution of Company Affiliation and Social Contacts to Risk Estimates of Between-Farm Transmission of Avian Influenza

摘要: Background Models of between-farm transmission pathogens have identified service vehicles and social groups as risk factors mediating the spread infection. Because high levels economic organization in much poultry industry, we examined importance company affiliation, distinct from contacts, a model potential avian influenza among broiler farms poultry-dense region United States. The contribution affiliation to disease has not been previously studied. Methodology/Principal Findings We obtained data on nature frequency business contacts through national survey growers Daily rates contact were estimated using Monte Carlo analysis. Stochastic modeling techniques used estimate exposure posed by single infectious farm other relative for under different scenarios. mean daily rate vehicular was 0.82 vehicles/day. magnitude ranged <1% 25% varying parameters. Risk largely driven with same group index facing 5-fold increase compared contracted companies. Employment part-time workers contributed significant increases most scenarios, notably who hired day-laborers. Social visits significantly less important determining risk. Conclusions/Significance Biosecurity interventions should be based information industry structure include potentially unrecognized sources viral transmission. Modeling efforts understand pathogen context industrial food animal production consider addition geospatial characteristics. Restriction farmers may useful reducing