A capture–recapture model for exploring multi-species synchrony in survival

摘要: 1. Although recent decades have seen much development of statistical methods to estimate demographical parameters such as reproduction, and survival migration probabilities, the focus is usually estimation for individual species. This despite fact that several species may live in close proximity, sometimes competing same resources. There therefore a great need new enable better integration data, e.g. study synchrony between sympatric species, which are subject common environmental stochasticity potentially similar biotic interactions. 2. We propose mark–recapture model uses random effect terms studying parameter at multi-species level, adapting framework initially developed multi-site this novel situation. The allows us divide between-year variance into ‘synchronous’ component, all considered, species-specific ‘asynchronous’ components, well proportion each component accounted by covariates. 3. demonstrate method with data from three colonially breeding auk share resources during season Isle May, Scotland. Mark-resight information has been collected since 1984 Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, guillemots Uria aalge razorbills Alca torda marked adults. explore relationship species’ two covariates. 4. Most variation was synchronous covariates acted simultaneously synchronising desynchronising agents adult survival, possibly through different indirect causation paths. 5. Synthesis applications. proposed investigation asynchrony role generating them. It provides insight whether respond similarly or differently changes their environment, helps disentangle sources these differences. estimated indices synchrony/asynchrony can facilitate generation further hypotheses about similarities/differences ecology, potential overlap wintering areas. readily applicable other ecosystems