Volcanic Hazards: Risk Perception and Preparedness

摘要: Drawing upon research conducted in New Zealand, this paper discusses some conceptual and methodological issues involved with understanding promoting risk reduction. Conceptual include the implications of distinction between objective public assessment assumptions made regarding relationship perception preparation. Methodological focus on need for longitudinal analysis. While volcanic activity per se is not amenable to reduction, several emergent social, economic physical effects are. For example, taping house windows or covering air conditioning units can reduce damage from ash, storing food water ensures that essential needs be met, insurance subsequent financial demands households repairing replacing items destroyed damaged. Despite intuitive appeal preparation being driven by perceived risk, assumption may justified (Lindell & Whitney, 2000). This draws recent Zealand discuss Risk: Public Expert Assessments Objectively, summarised as a function interaction hazard vulnerability these effects. areas surrounding Ruapehu, increasing (Johnston et al., Even if probability intensity eruption remains constant, continuing population growth development area increases vulnerability, consequently, risk. perceptions not, however, mirror process. Ohakune, following 1995/96 Ruapehu eruptions was determined disruption evenly distributed throughout community. (Paton, Millar Johnston., Risk highly interpretive dynamic process (Human McClure, 1997; Lindell 2000; Sjoberg, reduction strategies tend reflect assessment. The inference judgements about are similar way, using data, has fuelled providing information will automatically lead their becoming better prepared (Paton al, Smith, 1996). case Wellington, despite earthquake awareness levels 97%, only 48% stored food, fewer had radio (22%), an emergency plan (11%), first aid kit (9%). In Auckland, 92%, 10% water, 9% kit, 7% reported having radio. education programmes successful awareness, additional processes influence whether threat accepted person acts Perception Preparation measurement perception, identification used when making such judgements, complex. people differ regard prior knowledge, misconceptions, beliefs experience activity, manner which knowledge were acquired (e.g., direct experience, reading management agencies, watching television). Given lack common baseline, cross sectional surveys elucidate people's decision hazards paper, studies comparing preparedness before after exposure campaign, examine outline alternative approach locations discussed here (Hastings, Whakatane, Auckland) vulnerable have experienced ash fall historic eruptions. …