Learning or lock-in: Optimal technology policies to support mitigation

摘要: Abstract We investigate conditions that amplify market failures in energy innovations, and suggest optimal policy instruments to address them. Using an intertemporal general equilibrium model we show ‘small’ imperfections may trigger a several decades lasting dominance of incumbent technology over dynamically more efficient competitor, given the technologies are very good substitutes. Such ‘lock-in’ into inferior causes significantly higher welfare losses than failure alone, notably under ambitious mitigation targets. More other innovative industries, markets prone these lock-ins because electricity from different is almost perfect substitute. To guide government intervention, compare welfare-maximizing policies including subsidies, quotas, taxes with regard their efficiency, effectivity, robustness. Technology quotas feed-in-tariffs turn out be only insignificantly less first-best subsidies seem robust against small perturbations.