Does Monetary Policy Transmission in Ukraine Go Through the Interest Rates?

摘要: The paper investigates the monetary transmission mechanism in Ukraine and particular studies relative importance of its interest rate channel (IRC). First, we discuss essential institutional arrangements associated with conduct policy. Second, quantify IRC by means semi-structural five-variable VAR model. We use total reserves banking system as policy variable employ a simple model market for bank to disentangle shocks. To assess IRC, have applied special procedure isolate component shock reserves. found some weak traces channel, yet not detected persuasive evidence that dominates other channels transmission. Further, preferred specifications set experiments. consider loosening reserve requirements realistic magnitude. Our estimates predicted 19 percent hike forces fall 4-6 percentage points, prices rise 0.2 or 0.9 depending on measure output expand -0.7 (all over 6 12 months). simulate interpret working presence counterfactual shifts economy affect speed economy’s adjustment long-run equilibrium – unfavorable terms trade shock, persistently higher inflow capital liberalization regulated prices. Finally, briefly implications our results Ukraine’s recent anti-inflation