Future projections of temperature changes in Ottawa, Canada through stepwise clustered downscaling of multiple GCMs under RCPs

摘要: As the capital city of Canada, Ottawa has been experiencing significant impacts global climate change. How to adapt future change is one biggest concerns in city’s built and natural systems. It thus requires a comprehensive understanding possible changes local Ottawa, which can hardly be reflected coarse outputs Global Climate Models (GCMs). Therefore, stepwise clustered downscaling (SCD) model employed this study help investigate plausible daily maximum, minimum, mean temperatures Ottawa. Outputs from multiple GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used as inputs drive SCD order develop downscaled projections. The performance evaluated by comparing simulations observations (R2 > 0.87) over historical periods. Future temperature projections their likely temporal trends throughout century analyzed detail explore the regional variations warming thus provide scientific basis for developing appropriate adaptation strategies at different management levels. results suggest that City expect increasing (i.e., 0.18–0.38 °C per decade maximum temperature, 0.16–0.31 °C minimum 0.17–0.34 °C RCP4.5; 0.46–0.54 °C 0.37–0.45 °C 0.42–0.50 °C RCP8.5) century.