Landslide rupture and the probability distribution of mobilized debris volumes

摘要: [1] Landslide-driven erosion is controlled by the scale and frequency of slope failures consequent fluxes debris off hillslopes. In this paper, we tackle magnitude-frequency part process develop a theory initial failure mobilization that reproduces heavy-tailed distributions (probability density function or PDFs) observed for landslide source areas volumes. Landslide rupture propagation treated as quasi-static, noninertial simplified elastoplastic deformation with strain weakening; runout not considered. The model tracks stochastically evolving imbalance frictional, cohesive, body forces across failing uses safety factor concepts to convert into series incremental growth arrest probabilities. A single simulated sequence weighted “coin tosses” weights set Slope in stochastic way survival generates asymptotically power-law-tail PDFs area volume rock slides; predicted scaling exponents are consistent analyses inventories. primary control on shape relative importance cohesion over friction setting stability; smaller, shallower failures, size most common volumes, result low soil regolith, whereas negative larger tied greater bedrock.