Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling

摘要: Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet order plan and execute interventions change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) study medically important insects ticks. With myriad available methods, it challenging interpret their results. Here we review the future projections vectors produced by ENM, assess trends limitations. Tropical currently occupied many species; but indicate poleward expansions suitable climates for and, therefore, entomological surveillance be continuously done areas projected become suitable. The most commonly methods were maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, genetic algorithm rule set prediction, discriminant analysis. Lack consideration full-known current distribution target species on models with has led questionable predictions. We conclude there no ideal 'gold standard' method model distributions; researchers encouraged test different same data. Such practice becoming common field still lags behind studies vectors.