Cholera epidemics, war and disasters around Goma and Lake Kivu: an eight-year survey.

摘要: Background During the last eight years, North and South Kivu, located in a lake area Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, have been site major volcano eruption numerous complex emergencies with population displacements. These conditions suspected to favour emergence spread cholera epidemics. Methodology/Principal Findings In order assess influence these on outbreaks, reports cases were collected weekly from each health district Kivu (4,667,699 inhabitants) (4,670,121 2000 through 2007. A geographic information system was established, district, relationships between environmental variables number assessed using regression techniques time series analysis. We further checked for link outbreaks. Finally, we analysed data during an epidemiological survey that implemented Goma after Nyiragongo eruption. total 73,605 1,612 deaths reported. Time decomposition showed greater rainy season but not Kivu. Spatial distribution exhibited higher districts bordering lakes (Odds Ratio 7.0, Confidence Interval range 3.8–12.9). Four epidemic reactivations observed 12-week periods following war events, simulations indicate larger than expected any random selection period no war. volcanic followed by marked decrease incidence. Conclusion/Significance Our study points out crucial role some towns lakeside areas persistence Even if systematically epidemics, them enabled spreading.