Use of conditional stochastic models to generate climate change scenarios

摘要: Stochastic models have been proposed as one technique for generating scenarios of future climate change. One particular daily stochastic weather generator, termed Richardson's Model or WGEN, has received much attention. Because it is expressed in a conditional form convenient simulation (e.g., temperature modeled on precipitation occurrence), some its statistical characteristics are unclear. In the present paper, theoretical properties simplified version model derived. These results establish that when parameters varied, certain unanticipated effects can be produced. For instance, modifying probability occurrence not only changes mean temperature, but variance and autocorrelation well. A prescription how best to adjust these obtain desired provided. Such precautions apply more generally.