THE FORECAST ACCURACY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA POPULATION PROJECTIONS: A CASE STUDY OF QUEENSLAND
作者： Francisco Rowe , Tom Wilson
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摘要: Users of population projections tend to assume that they provide accurate predictions future demographic trends. However, there is limited evidence either support or refute this assumption because almost no research has evaluated the accuracy past in Australia. This paper assesses forecast seven previous rounds local government area for Queensland. The analysis reveals errors be quite large absolute terms and relation State errors, but respectable compared those reported other studies. Relative simple extrapolative forecasts, official Queensland are shown have performed well. Fractional response models employed determine extent which can predicted on basis characteristics. concluding section suggests ways error might reduced how users informed about possible magnitude current projections.
uq.edu.au
cdu.edu.au参考文章(51)
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