A Dynamic Hazard-Based Structural Equations Model of Vehicle Ownership with Endogenous Residential and Job Location Changes Incorporating Group Decision Making

摘要: Vehicle ownership or transaction models in the literature are used for a variety of purposes and their applications considerably increasing. The recent dramatic increase fuel price has even further stimulated need such models. Additionally, with increasing concerns about environmental issues consumption, reliable vehicle model become vital tool national, regional local agencies. Some fundamental most complex decisions made by households include relatively long-term on work home location automobile ownership. There interdependencies among these three which jointly determine household mobility that can influence entire travel pattern. One postulate job choices individual’s utilization behavior. Therefore, transportation system cannot be accurately analyzed if correlations between influential elements ignored. To great extent either influenced structure rather than exclusively individual members. it is also important to incorporate group decision making process within modeling framework. argue fleet size target year estimated as function current total number vehicles plus all will purchased, minus those disposed out vehicles. understanding timing an element predicting fleet. While typically, time usually ignored This study concentrates presenting results developing hazard-based equations residential relocation, relocation endogenous variables. utilizes data from Puget Sound Transportation Panel Survey (PSTPS) along land-use, network skims, built environment attributes Seattle Metropolitan Area. PSTPS panel survey covers 10 waves starting 1989 until 2002 its surrounding areas. In this study, interaction initially modeled at lower level proposed framework while impact correlated upper Timings variables duration formulation simultaneous equations. Moreover, unobserved heterogeneity included exogenous through normal distribution Two different approaches utilized order estimate coefficients First, hierarchical equations, second, joint Then both presented, compared, discussed.