End-to-end models of marine ecosystems: exploring the consequences of climate change and fishing using a minimal framework

摘要: Marine ecosystems are vital to human society: as a source of food, for economic growth and their potential mitigate climate change. With marine threatened by change overfishing, there is need sustainable fisheries management, which has been the basis an ecosystem-based approach management. This led considerable interest in end-to-end ecosystem models, where physical effects environment population dynamics all organisms coupled together into one framework. In this thesis, I studied model box-component representing phytoplankton zooplankton, with size-structured fish community model. I investigated artefacts results, caused numerical methods or architecture. found that care needs be taken choice method used simulate resolution can yield numerically stable results but also affect large-scale behaviours system, such slope mathematical stability size-spectra solutions. regards architecture, coupling two submodels differ structure lead system appear plausible consistent empirical data, impose serious discrepancies underlying life-histories fish. By distinguishing from ecosystem-effects, interactions feedbacks between higher lower trophic level investigated. impact upon ecosystem, particular, seasonal phytoplankton. under warming climate, spring bloom occurs earlier longer duration, predicts loss autumn bloom. These changes were not solely due direct effect temperature, indirect zooplankton. The fishing was explored model, strategies applied system. Regardless strategy, intensive exploitation stocks significant shift phytoplankton's annual patterns unpredictable periodic behaviours. This thesis developed uses minimal framework study at different levels, highlights importance these associated scenarios. It combines important theoretical insights consequences architecture model-derived ecosystem-scale behaviours, same time highlighting models practical flexible management tool.