The impacts of uncertainties on the carbon mitigation design: Perspective from abatement cost and emission rate

摘要: Abstract In this paper, we use a stochastic dynamic programming model to evaluate the impacts of uncertainties on abatement planning process. By involving endogenous emission path, differentiate two types during process, which come from volatility cost and ambiguity rate. Results suggest that considered influence decision-making process in several aspects by shaping path as well path. (1) The vary with expected value level variance uncertainty effects. Uncertainties caused costs 0.02 0.06 factors 0.01 0.03 increase total around 7% 5% respectively. (2) Both these can generate precautionary short-term. Especially early stages, task will be increased 1% each period due uncertainties. However such an action diminishing duration elapses. (3) long-term performances, however, different forms mechanisms. With small volatility, rate changes priority sequence actions more substantially short-term than does. (4) combined behave compound way improve performance model. difference between peaks conservative extreme cases is significant gap being about 5 million metric ton. These results have potentially important policy implications provide rationale for actions.