Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe : a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors

摘要: Integrated cross-sectoral impact assessments facilitate a comprehensive understanding of interdependencies and potential synergies, conflicts, trade-offs between sectors under changing conditions. This paper presents sensitivity analysis European integrated assessment model, the CLIMSAVE platform (IAP). The IAP incorporates important linkages six key land- water-based sectors: agriculture, biodiversity, flooding, forests, urban, water. Using IAP, we investigate direct indirect implications wide range climatic socio-economic drivers to identify: (1) those regions most sensitive future changes, (2) mechanisms directions (direct/indirect positive/negative), (3) form magnitudes (linear/non-linear strong/weak/insignificant), (4) relative importance across regions. results are complex. Most either directly or indirectly large number (more than 18 out 24 considered). Over twelve these have impacts on land use diversity, water, while only four effects flooding. In contrast, for urban sector all direct. Moreover, driver–indicator relationships non-linear, hence there is ‘surprises’. highlights considering interactions in assessments. Such systematic provides improved information decision-makers formulate appropriate adaptation policies maximise benefits minimise unintended consequences.